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November 2 2008

Seeing beyond the short-term

In Europe and the United States, the ‘R-word’ is finally being uttered. On 21 October, Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England gave a speech in which he stated that the UK was entering a recession. The media’s attention has shifted from the dark chasm of financial meltdown, seemingly averted by the concerted action of various governments, to the experience of individuals facing job cuts and mortgage foreclosures.

While growth in Europe and the United States is forecast to stagnate in 2009, the emerging economies may still grow at around 6%. Africa may grow at 6% and Asia at 7.7%. China is set to remain a powerful economic force with expected growth next year of 9.3%. So whilst the emerging economies will be hit by the slowdown in the United States and elsewhere, some of them are likely to continue to grow.

As Avivah Wittenberg-Cox writes in her blog this week, the tectonic plates of the global economy are shifting to the rising economies. Historians may look back on the financial chaos of 2008 as one of the turning points in the economic balance of power.

The management models that were built and shaped during a different era, when the West was still in a predominant economic global position, may need to be changed to adapt to the new realities. Opportunities now exist in the growing economies and business leaders may need to judge whether they are best placed to tap into these new markets. Many of them have started to change in the last decade. But they may face new challenges in understanding how to operate in emerging markets and how to maximise growth there.

The ability of businesses in the developed economies to tap into the economic opportunity represented by women also seems to rest on how their leaders respond to the present crisis. Some business chiefs, who attended the Women’s Forum, indicated that such issues as gender balance would now take a back seat. This is a predictable and arguably narrow-minded response. It is understandable in a climate where shareholders will expect companies to focus on opportunities for cost cuts. The other challenge, less reported on, will be whether the leaders of growing businesses in the emerging economies will also build companies that attract and retain the best female talent available and encourage the high-potential women in their organisations to rise to the top in equal measure to the men.

But this is also a time for visionaries who can see beyond the short-term. Perhaps, such leaders will recognise the advantage their organisations could reap from a more effective management model that propels women forward.

The result, as we have shown in articles on this website, could be hugely dramatic. There were several CEOs at the Women’s Forum who seem to remain committed to creating new management techniques to encourage and develop women in the workplace. They get an honourable mention in Avivah’s blog: Barclay’s Pascal Roché, Sodexo’s Michel Landel, Renault/Nissan’s Carlos Ghosn and JP Morgan’s Philippe Lagayette. For those interested in a more optimistic vision of the future, these are the types of people to watch.

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